Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Value For 2026: WR1 Season On Tap With Denver?

We should value wide receivers traded to new teams more highly than we typically do.

Sure, every player and situation is different. But there are plenty of examples of familiar faces in new places absolutely dominating in fantasy football. Whether it was Stefon Diggs in Buffalo, A.J. Brown in Philadelphia or George Pickens in Dallas, we have seen talented wideouts waste no time producing for their new teams.

So, yeah. Consider me quite interested in Jaylen Waddle.

Waddle was traded to the Denver Broncos this offseason after the Buffalo Bills weren’t willing to trade a 2026 first-round draft pick to help their star quarterback win a Super Bowl. No, I’m not bitter at all. Why do you ask? Anyway, Waddle gives the Broncos a true, explosive playmaker at wide receiver, complementing Courtland Sutton very well. And I won’t lie to you. I’m extremely bullish on the 27-year-old speedster.

But before we look at where he’s going, we first have to understand where he’s been.

What Is Jaylen Waddle's Fantasy Value In 2026?

Jaylen Waddle's Tenure In Miami

Waddle’s rookie season was very productive, but when you look further under the microscope, you’ll find it has very clearly been the outlier so far. He caught 104 passes for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns, operating as Miami’s clear WR1. But the usage was … different. Waddle posted a 7.0-yard aDOT, the 13th-lowest mark among receivers with at least 100 routes run. He was mainly used underneath, while his 14 wide receiver screen targets were 12th-most in the league. Meanwhile, his 54 targets of 0-5 air yards were the sixth-most at the position, sitting next to receivers like Hunter Renfrow, Keenan Allen and Cole Beasley. It was an interesting deployment of such an explosive, splash-play talent.

But in 2022, everything changed.

The Dolphins hired head coach and playcaller Mike McDaniel, while trading for Tyreek Hill, launching Miami’s offense into one of the league’s top units. McDaniel implemented a ton of movement, motion and schemed touches for the Dolphins’ best players, which was awesome for both the team and fantasy football fans everywhere. The only problem?

Very few of those designed looks went the way of Waddle.

From 2022-2025, Waddle ranked as just the WR32 on a PPR PPG basis, averaging 12.9 points per contest. And it’s not because he suddenly wasn’t a great player. But between the arrival of Hill in 2022 and do-it-all running back De’Von Achane in 2023, Waddle suddenly found himself as the third option more often than not. Under McDaniel, the Dolphins utilized shift/motion a league-leading 73.5% of the time during his four seasons, often benefiting Hill’s speed. Waddle? Not so much. During that four-year stretch, Hill ranks third among all wideouts in targets with motion (108), while Waddle finds himself 56th at the position, seeing just 29 such targets. In Miami’s timing-based passing attack, Waddle was often called upon to run post routes, while Hill and Achane saw the designed layups from McDaniel. As a result, Waddle has sat right next to Achane in TPRR over the past two years, with Hill comfortably ahead of both players.

Dolphins TPRR Since 2023:

Screen passes were also very prevalent in McDaniel’s Miami scheme. But once again, not for Waddle. During McDaniel’s tenure, the Dolphins ranked second in WR screen targets (178), trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs. And in that stretch, Waddle saw 31 wide receiver screen looks (26th among WRs), while Hill ranks 9th (48). Remember, this is a player that saw 14 designed screens as a rookie back in 2021. Between the change in scheme and arrival of Hill, Waddle’s usage has been very, very different from his rookie season.

Year	aDOT	YBC Per Reception
2021	7.0	5.5
2022	12.7	11.3
2023	10.7	8.2
2024	9.8	8.8
2025	13.2	10.7

More often than not, Waddle took a backseat to Hill, but we did see an elevated role this past season. With Hill playing just four games in 2025, Waddle returned to WR1 status for the Dolphins. From Week 5 on, Waddle accounted for 25% of Miami’s targets, while posting an identical 25% TPRR during that span. And over the course of his time alongside Hill in Miami, Waddle has been targeted on 20.5% of his routes with Tyreek on the field. But with Hill off the field since 2022, that TPRR climbs to just north of 27%.

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Mile High Expectations

Now in Denver, Waddle is prime to operate as a team’s WR1 once again. And the combination of investment, talent and scheme has my (and Denver’s) expectations a mile high.

For starters, the change in scenery, even though McDaniel does boast a fantasy-friendly offense, should work wonders for Waddle. Yes, Miami utilized a ton of motion, but they weren’t exactly the fastest-paced, most pass-happy offense. For instance, last year the Dolphins ranked 32nd in plays per minute (1.9), 31st in plays per game (55.6) and 24th in dropback rate over expected (-3%). And since 2022, the Dolphins rank 28th in average seconds per snap (28.5), while running no-huddle just 4.4% of the time (29th). The Broncos, meanwhile, rank 10th in average seconds per snap and sixth in no-huddle rate since Sean Payton took over back in 2023.

There should also be a serious uptick in pass volume headed Waddle’s way. This past season, despite claiming one of the elite defenses in football, the Broncos continued to rely on the pass. Denver ranked third in football in dropback rate over expected last season (4%), while their 57.8% neutral script pass rate since 2023 is the seventh-highest mark in the league. Quarterback Bo Nix led the NFL in pass attempts a season ago with 612, averaging 36 per contest. While I’m not sure I’d bet on him to lead the league again, the Fantasy Life fantasy football projections do have Nix penciled in for 556 pass attempts, trailing only Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow. Stout defense or not, the Broncos want to throw the football. And my guess? They want to throw it to Waddle.

A lot.

We have Waddle projected for 122 targets, which would pretty easily be the most he’s seen since his rookie season. All of those abandoned screen passes from his final four seasons in Miami will resurface in Denver. Although offensive coordinator Davis Webb will be calling the plays this season, Payton will surely still have plenty of influence on the offense. And that offense will likely once again heavily feature the screen game. Since 2023, the Broncos rank seventh in the NFL in WR screen pass attempts (113), while ranking fourth in overall screen passes during that span. And this past season, Troy Franklin actually tied for the second-most screen targets among all wide receivers with 21. A large chunk of those looks should be heading the way of Waddle, allowing him to use his speed to create explosive plays.

Courtland Sutton is obviously still in town and going to play a very meaningful role. But this is a player who was losing targets to rookies Franklin and Pat Bryant a season ago. After seeing 26% of the targets in 2024, Sutton’s target share fell to 21% this past season, while his TPRR dropped from 23% to 19%. I have zero question that Waddle will immediately slide into the WR1 role for the Broncos, relegating Sutton to 5-6 targets per game. The way Waddle doesn’t fully reach his potential, however, is if Sutton continues to dominate the red zone looks in this offense. Since entering the league back in 2018, Sutton’s 92 end zone targets are the fourth-most among all wideouts, while his 32.9% end zone target share ranks sixth.

Clearly I’m banking on Denver feeding Waddle the football right away, especially after giving up first, third and fourth-round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft to acquire him. Looking back at other notable offseason wide receiver trades, you’ll find that these teams that have been looking for that difference-making wideout tend to feature them right out of the gate.

Year	Player	Team	Target Share
2020	Stefon Diggs	BUF	29.1%
2022	A.J. Brown	PHI	29.0%
2022	Tyreek Hill	MIA	31.6%
2025	George Pickens	DAL	22.6%

The Stefon Diggs example is especially intriguing because Denver’s OC Davis Webb likened the Waddle trade to Diggs’ move to Buffalo back in 2020. And Webb is pretty qualified to compare the two because he was on the Bills’ practice squad during that season. I’m not anticipating the 166 targets, over 1,500 yards and 8 TDs Diggs posted during his first year in Buffalo.

But I am expecting his presence to be felt.

Should You Draft Jaylen Waddle In 2026 Fantasy Football?

Waddle is an immensely talented player whose best football is still ahead of him. It’s the same exact way many felt about George Pickens once he left Pittsburgh for Dallas—always good in their role but capable of much, much more. The fit with Denver is perfect for Waddle to maximize his skill set and breakout as a legitimate WR1 in fantasy football.

Detractors of Waddle will point to his injury history, which is timely given the fact that he is already nursing a strain that will sideline him for the next 4-5 days. And although he’s only missed six NFL games due to injury, Waddle has found himself on the injury report frequently, while exiting games early quite often. If a few bumps and bruises in a fast, physical sport deter you from drafting Waddle, I get it.

But not really.

While some may view him as a player that carries elevated risk, Waddle’s upside outweighs any possible concerns.